The Decline of “The Squad”: Understanding the Progressive Defeats

WASHINGTON – The progressive faction within the Democratic Party suffered a blow this election cycle as two members of the so-called “Squad” – Reps. Cori Bush and Jamaal Bowman – faced primary defeats. This unexpected outcome was largely attributed to an unprecedented wave of special interest spending, notably from pro-Israel PACs like AIPAC.

Despite initially rising to prominence in 2018, the progressive faction, consisting of Black and brown lawmakers like Rashida Tlaib, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Summer Lee, came under fire for criticizing Israel’s response to a Hamas attack in October. AIPAC’s super PAC, United Democracy Project, poured nearly $25 million into the primary races of Bush and Bowman, ultimately leading to their defeats.

However, the losses cannot be solely attributed to their stance on Israel, as other factors played a role in the defeats. For instance, Rep. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, another member of the Squad who maintained a similar position on Israel, easily won her primary, raising questions about the extent to which voters rejected progressive politics.

Primary Race Breakdown:

Bowman – New York’s 16th District

Bowman faced challenges due to redistricting, which shifted the demographics of his constituency, making his reelection bid more difficult. Additionally, he was up against a strong challenger, George Latimer, who garnered support from Jewish leaders in the district and received significant financial backing from AIPAC’s super PAC.

The primary race largely focused on Bowman’s position on Israel, with Latimer criticizing him for prioritizing foreign policy over local issues. Bowman’s incumbency was further marred by controversies, such as triggering a fire alarm in the House building, leading to his censure.

Bush – Missouri’s 1st District

Bush’s primary defeat was influenced by campaign ads that highlighted her opposition to a bipartisan infrastructure bill, rather than her criticism of Israel. United Democracy Project spent millions on negative ads against Bush, emphasizing her stance on the infrastructure bill, which resonated with local voters.

Despite facing other challenges, such as ongoing scandals and a Justice Department investigation into her campaign spending, Bush ultimately succumbed to the negative campaign orchestrated against her.

Omar – Minnesota’s 5th District

Omar managed to secure victory in her primary, surpassing a strong challenger with the help of significant fundraising and endorsements from prominent progressives. Despite threats from AIPAC, Omar’s campaign remained largely unscathed, allowing her to win comfortably and maintain her position within the Squad.

In conclusion, the defeats of Bush and Bowman underscore the challenges faced by progressive lawmakers, highlighting the complex interplay of factors that determine electoral outcomes.