LA CROSSE, Wis. – After a summer of historic tumult, the path to the presidency for both
Kamala Harris and
Donald Trump this fall is becoming much clearer.

The Democratic vice president and the Republican former president will devote almost all of their remaining time and resources to just seven states. They will spend hundreds of millions of dollars targeting voters who, in many cases, have just begun to pay attention to the election. And their campaigns will try to focus their messages on three familiar issues — the economy, immigration, and abortion — even in the midst of heated debates over character, culture, and democracy.

The candidates will debate in one week in what will be their first meeting ever. The nation’s premier swing state, Pennsylvania, begins in-person absentee voting the week after. By the end of the month, early voting will be underway in at least four states with a dozen more to follow by mid-October.

In just 63 days, the final votes will be cast to decide which one of them will lead the world’s most powerful nation.

Privately, at least, both camps acknowledge that victory is no sure thing as they begin the eight-week sprint to Election Day. Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck in most national polls conducted since President Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign.

The Harris campaign still put out a memo over the weekend casting itself as “the clear underdogs” in the contest.

“There’s not a scenario here that’s easy,” Harris senior adviser David Plouffe said in an interview. “The pathway to beating Donald Trump, the pathway to 270 electoral votes for Kamala Harris, is exceedingly hard, but doable. And that’s just a reality.”

Trump, meanwhile, rejects any indicators that suggest Harris is ahead even as he lashes out at her in deeply personal and sometimes apocalyptic terms, declaring that “our country is finished” if she wins.

“As we move past Labor Day, we will really get into the time where voters start to harden their opinions,” said James Blair, the Trump campaign’s political director. “We feel pretty good about things. We feel energized. Our people are energized. But there’s certainly plenty of work to be done.”

The electoral map settles on seven states

Just over a month ago, Trump allies suggested Democratic-leaning states like Minnesota, Virginia, or even New Jersey might be in play. Neither side believes that is still the case on Labor Day weekend.

In replacing Biden as the party’s nominee, Harris breathed new life into the Democrats’ political prospects, especially across the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. All four states have significant numbers of African Americans and Latinos, traditionally Democratic constituencies who were down nationally on Biden but appear to have come home to rally behind Harris.

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham was among the senior GOP officials who
brokered a peace between Trump and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, whose feud threatened to undermine the Republican effort in the state. Graham told The Associated Press he was worried about Georgia’s shift leftward.