Understanding the Shifting Political Landscape of Latino Voters in Texas
Sign up for the We the Texans newsletter to receive twice-monthly updates on our year-long initiative dedicated to boosting civic engagement and chronicling how democracy is experienced in Texas.
For years, Carmen Cavazos’ neighborhood in southeast Houston has voted reliably for Democrats up and down the ballot. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won 68% of the vote in Cavazos’ voting precinct, a mostly residential enclave of about 3,000 people near Hobby Airport.
But something is changing in the precinct, where about nine out of 10 residents are Hispanic. President Joe Biden carried it by 20 points in his 2020 race against Donald Trump — a solid showing for Democrats, but half of Clinton’s 40-point advantage from just four years earlier against the same Republican.
Cavazos, a 44-year-old flight attendant and Republican precinct chair, said she expects the trend to continue in November. She has been trying to accelerate the political shift, helping organize regular meetings of the Saturday Menudo Club, a group that meets monthly at local Mexican restaurants to hear from conservative candidates and other speakers.
“The messaging and voter engagement in our community is critically important,” Cavazos said. “When presented with data, facts, and statistics, the false narrative of identity politics and ideology propaganda encouraged by Democrats crumbles.”
Republicans have logged historic gains in South Texas the last couple of elections, making political battlegrounds out of border communities that voted solidly Democratic for years. That sea change has largely overshadowed the more subtle rightward shift of Latino voters in cities and suburbs away from the border.
The threat of eroding Latino support in urban areas could spell even bigger trouble for Democrats’ abiding hopes of turning Texas blue, because far more Latino voters live in these areas than in South Texas. While Democrats may not lose precincts like Cavazos’ anytime soon, they will continue to be locked out of statewide elections if Republicans are able to continue peeling off nearly 40% of the vote there.
…
“Republicans are missing the opportunity to explain to Hispanics that their hard-earned paycheck is now going to pay the debt for some kid in Massachusetts who went and got a liberal arts degree at Boston University,” Sanchez said. “Explain that to the Hispanic family, and I’ll tell you, they’re not going to vote for the Democrats anymore.”
…
The Texas Tribune answering reader questions about 2024 elections. To share your question or feedback with us, you can fill out this form.
The full program is now LIVE for the 2024 Texas Tribune Festival, happening Sept. 5–7 in downtown Austin. Explore the program featuring more than 100 unforgettable conversations on topics covering education, the economy, Texas and national politics, criminal justice, the border, the 2024 elections and so much more. See the full program.
