How a pro-school voucher candidate triumphed in TX district with few private schools

Sign up for The Brief, The Texas Tribune’s daily newsletter that keeps readers up to speed on the most essential Texas news.

Gov. Greg Abbott felt vindicated when nine Texas Republican lawmakers who helped block a school voucher program he championed last year lost their seats in the March primary. The governor portrayed their removal from office as clear evidence that Texans wanted a way to use public funds to send their children to private schools.

“Republican primary voters have once again sent an unmistakable message that parents deserve the freedom to choose the best education pathway for their child,” Abbott said back then, before helping unseat six more lawmakers in the May runoff elections.

But Marilyn Snider got a different impression while talking to voters outside the election administration office in Coldspring during the primary season. There, she worked under a tent campaigning for Janis Holt, the Abbott-backed candidate she supported and who eventually defeated state Rep. Ernest Bailes in Texas House District 18, lodged in between Houston and Beaumont.

“Nobody mentioned school vouchers; everyone that came by mentioned Colony Ridge — every one of them,” said Snider, 78, referring to the residential development north of Houston that attracted widespread criticism last year after Republicans falsely portrayed it as a magnet for criminals, drugs and illegal immigration.

Statewide, the governor framed the election as all about vouchers. But things were not as straightforward in House District 18, the only district without any state-recognized private schools where a pro-voucher challenger defeated an anti-voucher incumbent during the primary.

Bailes campaigned, in part, as a champion for public schools. He argued that school vouchers are not what’s best for children and accused Abbott of wanting the program for his own political benefit. While many residents in Bailes’ district love and support the local public school system, only a small share of them decided the election. Roughly 21% of eligible voters cast a ballot in the primary, which are usually low-turnout affairs in Texas.

Abbott fulfilled his promise to go after Republicans who opposed vouchers last year and invested heavily to unseat Bailes. On the ground, that money was largely used to mount a forceful campaign questioning him not so much on vouchers but on his conservative values. Many of the attacks harped on immigration fears associated with the extraordinary growth of Colony Ridge.

Still, some of the House district’s voters said they agreed with the idea of vouchers, even though the community’s limited private schooling options meant residents would likely not benefit from the program as much as other Texans. Local Republican leaders said voucher supporters’ oft-repeated argument, that parents should have full control over where their kids attend school, resonated with them — and Bailes failed to recognize it.

“I met Representative Bailes several times and liked him, thought he was really, basically, a conservative,” said Kent Batman, former chair of the Hardin County Republican Party. “But on the issue of school choice, he was arrogant.”

Public schools and the voucher debate

The “Meet the Wildcats” high school pep rally at Splendora High School in August meant everything and more to Stephanie Gundy, a self-described “new football mom” who showed up to cheer on her 16-year-old son, Amari.

Reserve Officers’ Training Corps members stood at attention holding U.S. and Texas flags. Cheerleaders shook their pom-poms while the sound of band drums and trumpets echoed throughout the gym. A student led a prayer, calling for community growth, knowledge and unity. The new football coach imitated mixed martial artist Conor McGregor’s billionaire strut, urging parents to foster a Friday night game atmosphere that rivals the Super Bowl.

“This is where our babies go. This is where our teachers teach. This is where our community is,” Gundy said.

House District 18 comprises some of the fastest-growing school districts in Texas. With more than 200,000 residents across four counties — Hardin, Liberty, Montgomery and San Jacinto — many of the local towns revolve around their public schools. They serve as major employers for working families, spanning generations. Touchdowns on Friday nights in the fall are considered the cheapest entertainment in town.

“I see a concern for, ‘Who are they going to be after they walk out of these doors?’” said Schaefer, a former public school teacher who is actively involved with the local parent teacher organization. Public schools, she added, “are doing so much more for these students and trying to recognize the different types of learners that are here and what it’s going to take to form a successful community.”

Money is often tight for schools in House District 18. School districts entered this school year spending more money than they are earning, largely blaming state lawmakers for failing to approve significant funding increases to help them keep up with the rising costs of living and their growth. Many students in the community need additional support because they are learning English as a second language or come from low-income families. One of the fastest-growing school districts in the state, in Cleveland, has struggled to gather voter support for measures that would allow it to build infrastructure to keep up with student growth.

Like in other parts of the state, public school leaders in House District 18 worry school vouchers would mean less funding for their districts. They hope lawmakers would hold any such program to the same standard of accountability as their campuses are — and that they will first make sure public schools are adequately funded.

“I think we all agree that parent choice is a good thing,” said Jeff Burke, superintendent of the Splendora school district. “As long as it’s a level playing field, we’re good.”

Bailes, a 42-year-old Shepherd native and rancher who owns a familiar face in the area and has often cast his opposition to vouchers as a reflection of his lifelong support for public schools. His family tree stretches back 140 years in the community. His father and grandfather attended Shepherd High School, where he was once a student. His mother was a local school board member and president. Bailes’ two sons attended Coldspring-Oakhurst High School, where his wife teaches. A local baseball field bears his family’s last name.

In his eight years in the Texas House, he often voted yes on hot-button conservative legislation, which earned him goodwill with voters in one of the most conservative districts in the state.

Bailes supported legislation placing restrictions on how much students can learn about America’s history of systemic racism; allowing unlicensed religious chaplains to counsel public school students on their mental health; forbidding sexually explicit materials in school libraries; prohibiting transgender athletes from competing on college teams that match their gender identity; and banning diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives on university campuses.

Some local leaders note that residents in the House district may not have personally experienced many of the problems that state officials claim have recently infiltrated Texas public schools, but they supported lawmakers like Bailes in their attempts to address them.

During the 2022 Republican primary, local voters signaled satisfaction with his record. He defeated Holt and two other candidates with roughly 56% of the vote, sending him back to the state Capitol for a fourth term in office. Bailes ran unopposed during the general election that year.

But the political landscape has changed drastically since then.

Education savings accounts, a type of school voucher program, emerged as a top priority for Abbott last year. A coalition of House Democrats and rural Republicans, including Bailes, kept the program from becoming law, citing worries that the proposal would strip away funds from school districts that are already struggling financially. When Abbott’s repeated efforts to pass a voucher program failed, he followed through with a promise to campaign against any Republican officeholder who did not support the proposal.

During the March primary, Holt, a Silsbee Republican school board member and former public school teacher, defeated Bailes by more than 4,000 votes, capturing roughly 53% of the total votes cast. She advanced to the ballot in November and is expected to win.

Bailes raised more than $1.3 million in contributions this election cycle — almost half a million more than he received during the 2022 election cycle — with his biggest donors being HEB chairperson Charles Butt and Texas GOP House Speaker Dade Phelan, according to a Texas Tribune analysis. He also received contributions from state teacher advocacy organizations.

Meanwhile, Holt went from raising less than $16,000 in 2022 to more than $820,000 this election cycle — with over $700,000 coming from Abbott. Holt did not respond to requests for an interview.

Former President Donald Trump also boosted her profile with a public endorsement on his social media platform.

“As a State Representative,” Trump wrote, “Janis will help us Secure the Border, Champion Parental Rights, Protect the Second Amendment, and Stand Up to the Woke Mob destroying our Country.”

The push to characterize Bailes as the incumbent who no longer stood for conservative values proved too difficult for him to overcome.

“I had people that I’ve known my whole life, and they said, ‘Hey, we’ve known you forever, we’ve always supported you. When did you become that person?” Bailes said. “With the money that the governor put in and the unprecedented approach that he took to this campaign, grassroots and people meant nothing. I mean, we became an election of influencers.”

Despite helping defeat Bailes and 14 other anti-voucher Republicans during the primaries, candidates whom Abbott endorsed still need to secure victory in the November general election if he wants to increase the odds that the program will clear the Texas House next year.

Immigration fears and beyond

While Holt made it clear that she supports the governor’s top legislative priority, her campaign also played on immigration fears when making a case for herself.

“Our nation is being invaded, and the federal government has failed to do their job. The Biden administration, the Democrats, have failed to do the job that needs to be done to secure the border, and so Texas is having to step up,” Holt said during a Facebook livestream debate in February. “Areas like Colony Ridge over in Liberty County that have sprung up over the last few years … that’s a byproduct of this illegal invasion of our country.” School vouchers were barely mentioned during the livestream.

Holt claimed that legislation Bailes authored in 2017 spurred the growth of the Colony Ridge development. For the last two decades, the area has served as home to many low-income and immigrant families looking for affordable housing, according to the Houston Chronicle. As Colony Ridge grew, so did the area’s public schools.

In the last year, the development became the target of conspiracy theories that gained traction among top Republican state officials, such as the false